From Insolvent to On-Chain: When Corporate Treasuries Become the New DeFi Ponzi
DXY forms a death cross as the Fed holds rates; crypto markets trade sideways, while select crypto treasury plays gain momentum amid TradFi’s cautious entry.
📈 Chart of the Week: DXY
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently triggered a death cross — a bearish technical signal marked by the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average. This typically signals weakening long-term trend strength. However, in an interesting twist, DXY has staged a decisive upside breakout, adding complexity to the narrative.
Key Observations:
📉 Death Cross Formed:
The intersection between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA underscores longer-term trend fatigue. Historically, this pattern has preceded a bottom and short-term reversals.
🚀 Breakout & Price Surge:
DXY surged +1.1% week-over-week, rebounding sharply from the sub-98 zone. This move follows a strong weekly close above the key resistance band (~$97.50–$98.50), which has now flipped into support.
✅ Technical Validation:
The breakout is supported by both price structure and momentum indicators, adding conviction to the move despite the death cross.
Is the DXY bottoming like in 2018 and 2021 — or is this a bear market rally within a broader downtrend? The answer will have direct implications for global risk assets, especially commodities and crypto.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It’s important that readers conduct their own research before trading.
Highlights Of The Week
Crypto market consolidates as total cap up sits at $3.8T with sentiment at Greed.
📈 Market Movements
Total Market Cap: Approximately $3.8 trillion, unchanged.
Altcoin Market Cap (excluding Bitcoin): Around $1.46 trillion, unchanged.
Fear & Greed Sentiment: The index stands at 63, market sentiment is Greed.
🌍 Macroeconomic Developments
🧊 Labor Cools Softly: JOLTS job openings dropped to 7.437M (−275K MoM), marking continued signs of softening demand. Hiring also slipped to 5.204M—a slowdown, but not a collapse. Markets read this as early justification for a September rate cut, though no move expected today (Source: Reuters).
📦 Tariff Truce On Ice – For Now: The U.S.–China tariff pause has been extended 90 days, pending Trump’s sign-off. White House officials floated that "tariff proceeds may be diverted toward building a Bitcoin reserve", fueling crypto-native speculation about state-level BTC buys. Nothing confirmed, but language is intentional (Source: Reuters)
📉 ISM PMI on Watch: Manufacturing remains in contraction (June = 49.0). Markets eye Friday’s July print, which could confirm either a bottom or continued weakness. A sub‑50 read would support Fed doves (Source: Trading Economics).
🦅 Fed Holds Fire (For Now): Rate decision today expected to hold at 4.25%–4.50%. But the real alpha is in Powell’s presser—watch for dovish tilts and subtle September cut signals. Dissents from Trump-aligned governors possible (Source: Investopedia).
Source: Polymarket
🏦 Developments & Innovations
📈 SUI & SEI Breakout: SUI +36%, SEI +41%—investor rotation into high-TPS L1s with active dev ecosystems. Reflects growing appetite for faster alt-beta beyond Ethereum (Source: CoinDesk).
🏛️ GENIUS Act Signed: U.S. law now mandates all stablecoins be fully backed and issued under dual federal–state oversight. Regulatory clarity = stablecoin greenlight
(Source: Barron’s).
🏦 BNB Treasury Play Sends CEA Vertical: Canadian vape stock CEA Industries +833% after announcing a BNB-denominated corporate treasury. First major BNB treasury move mimicking early Tesla-Bitcoin playbook (Source: Business Insider).
🚀 Bitcoin Hyper Presale Booms: Bitcoin-based L2 raises $5.5M+ in ongoing presale. Heavy retail buzz, with early supporters calling it “the next Stacks.” (Source: Economic Times).
📊 Third Eye Fund Launch: Ex-Jefferies trader Tian Zeng launching $70M crypto hedge fund focused on basis trades and tech equity overlays. Start date: Aug 1.
(Source: Financial News London)
🏛️ From Gold to Code: How Nation-States and Corporates Are Reshaping Global Reserves
As the dollar system strains under rising debt, Bitcoin is no longer just a trade—it's becoming global collateral. What began as a balance sheet experiment by companies like MicroStrategy is now evolving into a quiet but undeniable trend: the emergence of sovereign and corporate crypto treasuries.
I. 🧱 The Bitcoin Demand Shock: Not Just ETFs Anymore
In early 2024, headlines focused on U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock, Fidelity, and others opened the floodgates, driving billions into BTC. But that was only the surface. As Capriole’s recent “Bitcoin Demand Shock” report highlighted, the real story is structural demand: an unprecedented alignment of:
Institutional inflows via ETF wrappers
Corporate treasury allocations
Nation-states quietly accumulating Bitcoin
This isn’t just about price action. It’s about Bitcoin’s evolution from speculative asset to a neutral, programmable reserve layer—used by companies, countries, and protocols alike.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to MaxMilko to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.